Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 1.994409 2.112139 2.235838 2.375957 2.530832 2.697431 2.891063
2025-10-19 1.840351 2.005621 2.187694 2.404855 2.659105 2.950279 3.313326
2025-10-26 1.723550 1.913195 2.128675 2.394768 2.719064 3.107714 3.618831
2025-11-02 1.633406 1.839088 2.078498 2.382473 2.765342 3.242155 3.899219
2025-11-09 1.550243 1.765099 2.020031 2.351073 2.779542 3.330798 4.122144
2025-11-16 1.478576 1.699353 1.965582 2.318016 2.785129 3.403785 4.325774
2025-11-23 1.431564 1.660375 1.940690 2.318928 2.832383 3.533018 4.619367
2025-11-30 1.397885 1.635559 1.931221 2.337705 2.902823 3.697732 4.982438
2025-12-07 1.346329 1.585278 1.885867 2.304878 2.897921 3.751684 5.177083
2025-12-14 1.294289 1.532012 1.833838 2.259469 2.871059 3.769226 5.312097
2025-12-21 1.250693 1.487868 1.791694 2.224981 2.856870 3.803391 5.476979
2025-12-28 1.236842 1.481814 1.799599 2.260098 2.946188 4.004159 5.957868
2026-01-04 1.221787 1.474041 1.805391 2.293338 3.036379 4.217357 6.502510
2026-01-11 1.205315 1.463628 1.806921 2.320188 3.118302 4.424853 7.074973
2026-01-18 1.177818 1.437165 1.784855 2.310691 3.141532 4.533316 7.465005
2026-01-25 1.151421 1.411224 1.762348 2.299084 3.160019 4.634300 7.857024
2026-02-01 1.120884 1.378590 1.729096 2.269434 3.146624 4.675699 8.122294
2026-02-08 1.091556 1.346759 1.695863 2.238204 3.128432 4.706136 8.367436
2026-02-15 1.073596 1.330175 1.683869 2.239065 3.164161 4.841384 8.896505
2026-02-22 1.061594 1.321493 1.682867 2.256806 3.229657 5.040712 9.639827
2026-03-01 1.036101 1.293052 1.652010 2.225787 3.207628 5.062727 9.908869
2026-03-08 1.008356 1.260769 1.614600 2.182854 3.162068 5.032729 10.025257
2026-03-15 0.984678 1.233757 1.584273 2.150227 3.133299 5.035344 10.240341